THE OCTG SITUATION ROOM

Susan Murphy

Nov 27, 2019
3 min

OCTG Forecast 2020: Food for Thought

’Tis the season, the time when we sift through stacks of data in order to provide some grist for the mill. Faced with lingering trade-related issues, global economic concerns and the general uncertainty heading into an election year there’s no sugarcoating the situation. Be that as it may, we herewith aim to separate the wheat from the chaff with the intention of serving you well into 2020. We’ll commence our thesis by crossing off “feast or famine” from the list of possible

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3Q19 OCTG Inventories: A Turn for the Better

Susan Murphy

Oct 30, 2019
2 min

3Q19 OCTG Inventories: A Turn for the Better

When it comes to diagnosing the health of the oil patch there’s no greater panacea than robust drilling activity, but a significant drop in OCTG inventories is always a shot in the arm for the supply chain. Thus, the results of our exclusive Quarterly Inventory Yard Survey can be viewed as a welcome relief. In 3Q19 (period ending 9/30/19) “prime” US upstream OCTG inventories in the lower 48 contracted significantly. Details can be found in this month’s OCTG Situation Report.

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Susan Murphy

Sep 25, 2019
2 min

Doing the Math on OCTG in Q3

As the class of “2020” reconvenes at school this month we too are putting on our thinking caps and dusting off our previous 2019 forecasts to see if they stood the test of time. Reviewing the past couple months, it’s almost as if fall descended on the oil patch in June when we detected a chill in the air during our midyear market conversations. Sadly, our below-average updated annual projections now reflect the cooling drilling activity. “Old school” conventional thinking wou

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Susan Murphy

Jun 26, 2019
3 min

OCTG 2H19: Rolling with the Punches

Each year in June we take the temperature of the oil patch, speaking with people from every walk of the supply chain to get a sense of the market from their perspective. This exercise inevitably yields valuable and colorful commentary on the present state of affairs. Last year could have been summed up in “232” words as discussions were almost entirely variables on the theme of the investigation. In reviewing the results of this year’s midyear market calls, one phrase best ca

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Susan Murphy

Mar 27, 2019
3 min

Will OCTG Buck 2018’s Advancements?

H-Town confirmed it knows the ropes as it played host to a Texas-sized A-list this month for the RodeoHouston Livestock show and the 38th annual CERAWeek where revelry met with a “New World of Rivalries”; the theme for the preeminent confab. Meanwhile, we put our own unbridled energy into rounding up all the stats necessary to prepare our yearly “state of the industry” Report: a comprehensive review of the metrics that matter in OCTG for the past three years. Typically, this

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Testing the OCTG Market’s ‘Metal’ in Early 2019

Susan Murphy

Feb 27, 2019
3 min

Testing the OCTG Market’s ‘Metal’ in Early 2019

If it’s February it must be our “Annual State of the Industry Report.” But alas, that isn’t the ‘Situation’ this month as the shutdown got the better of anyone who relies on the government for stats. Thus, we’ve postponed our Annual Report until March when the December 2018 import/export data points will be made available, enabling us to provide a thorough examination of the trends that defined the OCTG landscape over the past three years. This month we’ll look at some curren

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2019 OCTG Forecasts: Merry & Bright ... or Ho-Hum?

Susan Murphy

Nov 28, 2018
3 min

2019 OCTG Forecasts: Merry & Bright ... or Ho-Hum?

’Tis the season and it’s tradition for us to start it by ringing in our forecast of all things OCTG for 2019. As we began checking off our list of oilfield indicators in early November it appeared that our projections, starting with WTI, would be of good cheer. We were midway through our predictions when the White House threw in a lump of coal—a reprieve from Iran sanctions for eight countries—roiling oil markets on concerns of oversupply and potentially dashing our merry and

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2018 OCTG Forecast | What’s in the Cards for the Coming Year?

Susan Murphy

Dec 1, 2017
3 min

2018 OCTG Forecast | What’s in the Cards for the Coming Year?

Each November we examine numerous oilfield metrics to determine what might be in the cards for the coming year. Will the deck be stacked in favor of or against OCTG in 2018? Here’s our read. On November 30, the powers that be (OPEC) met to determine whether to double down on the production quotas they curbed (first time in eight years) in a bid to support prices when they gathered last year in November. The odds were that the cuts would be extended beyond the March 2018 expir

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OCTG Q3 Inventories: “Back to the Future”

Susan Murphy

Nov 3, 2017
3 min

OCTG Q3 Inventories: “Back to the Future”

Another quarter wrapped; time to zoom in on the results of The OCTG Situation Report’s exclusive OCTG inventory yard survey. First, we want to give props to the cast and crew who work behind the scenes to make this production possible each quarter. Much credit goes to the numerous supply chain professionals who inventory pipe at truck terminals, mills, processors and inspection yards throughout the lower 48 every three months. Q3 could easily be titled, “Back to the Future,”

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OCTG 4Q16 Inventory: Is the Yard Half Empty or Half Full

Susan Murphy

Jan 26, 2017
3 min

OCTG 4Q16 Inventory: Is the Yard Half Empty or Half Full

Photo Courtesy Port of Houston Authority The past 26 months in the oil patch have run our industry through the mill, so the glimmer of light we see at the end of the tunnel sets the tone for a decidedly happier new year. Each January (and every quarter) we go to great lengths to determine if the ‘yard’ is half full or half empty. Our analysis is based on our exclusive quarterly inventory yard survey, designed to gauge demand for OCTG in the U.S. The results of our survey are

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Susan Murphy

Nov 22, 2016
3 min

Santa vs Scrooge: 2017 OCTG Forecasts

As we prepared to weigh in on our 2017 OCTG forecasts we couldn’t help but look back over the past two years with a mix of shock and awe. It was Thanksgiving Day 2014 when OPEC all but gave us ‘the bird,’ and the oil patch has struggled to recoup ever since. Since then we’ve gone from a time when it was hard to imagine pumping oil for much less than $60/bbl to reluctantly accepting $50/bbl as the new normal. And while the present year has served up more than enough apprehensi

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3Q16 Inventory: Cracking the Case of the Absent OCTG Tonnages

Susan Murphy

Oct 27, 2016
2 min

3Q16 Inventory: Cracking the Case of the Absent OCTG Tonnages

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data,” ~Sherlock Holmes. Holmes clearly understood that having data to back up one’s conclusions is paramount and our quarterly OCTG inventory yard survey is further proof of this fact. This investigation and analysis is the only one of its kind in the world and serves as a bellwether of OCTG health for every segment of the supply chain. Herewith we present a piece of the puzzle that leads to our determinations. Our exclusiv

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Susan Murphy

Aug 25, 2016
2 min

Will OCTG Prove Its ‘Metal’ in 2016?

It’s medal mania all over again as the 2016 Rio Olympic Games permeate the airwaves. And it’s “metal” mania here in the OCTG Situation Room as we dig into the various drivers that impact oil country tubular goods. The buzz of recent seems centered on the hot rolled coil (HRC) trade case outcome. While we share details of the results in our August market intel we offer highlights that relate specifically to OCTG here. We reported there was a pickup in inquiries in early June a

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