THE OCTG SITUATION ROOM

Susan Murphy

Sep 25, 2019
2 min

Doing the Math on OCTG in Q3

As the class of “2020” reconvenes at school this month we too are putting on our thinking caps and dusting off our previous 2019 forecasts to see if they stood the test of time. Reviewing the past couple months, it’s almost as if fall descended on the oil patch in June when we detected a chill in the air during our midyear market conversations. Sadly, our below-average updated annual projections now reflect the cooling drilling activity. “Old school” conventional thinking wou

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The OCTG ‘Space’ 1Q19: The Current Frontier

Susan Murphy

Apr 30, 2019
3 min

The OCTG ‘Space’ 1Q19: The Current Frontier

While visual evidence of a massive Black Hole made headlines recently, we’re happy to report you won’t find any black holes in OCTG inventory metrics due to our exclusive quarterly Inventory Yard Surveys. This breakthrough is credited to our publication’s founder, Duane Murphy, who decided 33 years ago it was high time to resolve this gap and went about the laborious task of doing exactly that. The gravity of his work cannot be underestimated especially when you consider our

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2019 OCTG Forecasts: Merry & Bright ... or Ho-Hum?

Susan Murphy

Nov 28, 2018
3 min

2019 OCTG Forecasts: Merry & Bright ... or Ho-Hum?

’Tis the season and it’s tradition for us to start it by ringing in our forecast of all things OCTG for 2019. As we began checking off our list of oilfield indicators in early November it appeared that our projections, starting with WTI, would be of good cheer. We were midway through our predictions when the White House threw in a lump of coal—a reprieve from Iran sanctions for eight countries—roiling oil markets on concerns of oversupply and potentially dashing our merry and

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Will The 232 Rain On The Oil Patch’s Parade?

Susan Murphy

Jun 27, 2018
2 min

Will The 232 Rain On The Oil Patch’s Parade?

Maybe it’s the heat, maybe it’s the market but this month everyone in the oil patch seems to be fired up about something. Fortunately for us

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Susan Murphy

May 23, 2018
3 min

Surviving Post-Traumatic ‘232’ Disorder

s we barrel ahead toward summer in the oil patch there’s an intermittent up-stream of opportunities for various sectors of the supply chain

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OCTG Q3 Inventories: “Back to the Future”

Susan Murphy

Nov 3, 2017
3 min

OCTG Q3 Inventories: “Back to the Future”

Another quarter wrapped; time to zoom in on the results of The OCTG Situation Report’s exclusive OCTG inventory yard survey. First, we want to give props to the cast and crew who work behind the scenes to make this production possible each quarter. Much credit goes to the numerous supply chain professionals who inventory pipe at truck terminals, mills, processors and inspection yards throughout the lower 48 every three months. Q3 could easily be titled, “Back to the Future,”

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Susan Murphy

Sep 20, 2017
3 min

OCTG Weathers Texas Storms

Weather news has taken the US by storm for the past couple weeks starting with Hurricane Harvey that hit home for so many in the oil patch. While the plight of the people in its path was the first concern, many in the OFS supply chain wondered how the storm might trickle down to tubular goods. After all, the fate of OCTG this year has been balanced on a fragile ecosystem making another potential threat especially distressing. The two charts below lend further credence to this

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Getting a Read on OCTG Inventories for 2Q17

Susan Murphy

Jul 26, 2017
2 min

Getting a Read on OCTG Inventories for 2Q17

As we close the chapter on another exclusive quarterly inventory survey, we’re grateful to the hundreds of OCTG yards throughout the supply

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2017 U.S. OCTG Mill Supply Forecast: The Million 'Tubes' March

Susan Murphy

Mar 29, 2017
3 min

2017 U.S. OCTG Mill Supply Forecast: The Million 'Tubes' March

The quote, “Prediction is very hard, especially about the future” captures the essence of the responses we received to our request for domestic OCTG mills supply forecasts in a year where uncertainty seems to be the only certainty. Thus, we braved this muddy matter with the hope of rising above the perils of prediction. Our U.S. OCTG Mill Supply Forecast comes with the following set of assumptions for 2017: a) WTI averages $50 - $60/BBL; averages over or under this range will

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Susan Murphy

Feb 22, 2017
2 min

OCTG: "Days of Future Past"

In the words of baseball legend Yogi Berra, “the future ain't what it used to be.” As we embark on our publication’s 31st annual ‘state

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3Q16 Inventory: Cracking the Case of the Absent OCTG Tonnages

Susan Murphy

Oct 27, 2016
2 min

3Q16 Inventory: Cracking the Case of the Absent OCTG Tonnages

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data,” ~Sherlock Holmes. Holmes clearly understood that having data to back up one’s conclusions is paramount and our quarterly OCTG inventory yard survey is further proof of this fact. This investigation and analysis is the only one of its kind in the world and serves as a bellwether of OCTG health for every segment of the supply chain. Herewith we present a piece of the puzzle that leads to our determinations. Our exclusiv

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OhCTG! The Problem with Pipe: Rolling with the Punches in 2H16

Susan Murphy

Sep 21, 2016
3 min

OhCTG! The Problem with Pipe: Rolling with the Punches in 2H16

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to the “heavyweight” main event of the month: the buzz over the bitter cost disparity between seamless and welded OCTG and the narrowing pricing delta between the two. In one corner we have seamless OCTG and its opponent, welded OCTG in the other. “Let’s get ready to rumble.” This fight has been heating up with the spectacular rally in U.S. hot rolled coil, a conversation we’ve highlighted in recent months. So let’s break the status quo down for c

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