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  • Writer's pictureSusan Murphy

OCTG Supply: Will 2024 Buck Last Year’s Trends?

The OCTG Situation Report March 2024 Photo Courtesy Port Houston
Photo Courtesy Port Houston

Talk about “energy”: Houston was a barrel of fun in March, closing out the world’s largest Livestock Show and Rodeo on St. Patrick’s Day, and commencing the “industry’s Super Bowl,” CERAWeek, the day after. Is it any wonder? After all, it’s not an exaggeration to say, “everything’s BIGGER in Texas.”

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, we’ve been rounding up all the many stats needed to put our unbridled energy into our own Annual U.S. OCTG Supply Forecast. Much like RodeoHouston, where there’s a lot riding on the tenacious cowgirls and cowboys doing their best to hang on in a turbulent environment, we found ourselves positioned similarly.

For starters, the volatility in the O/G markets at present brings new meaning to the word, ‘turmoil.’ Last year’s record US production of both commodities seemed to give way to more trepidation than production as the year turned the corner—oh, but hang tight—what’s this? Did we hear something about a “surprise drop in US crude stockpiles” earlier this month? Yes, yes we did. We also saw oil prices jolted out of their long winter’s nap to reach a four-month high. And, of course, one can’t help but wonder if the various ge-oil-political underlying causes may motivate indifferent drillers if prices continue to escalate?

Although it doesn’t simplify forecasting, it could potentially help to replace some of the activity lost to producers who are currently suffering gas pains. And while this isn’t our first rodeo, with the abundance of “x” factors looming, an “open and shut” case for our prognosis isn’t on the agenda this year.

The objective of our annual investigation is to determine if OCTG supply is going to bring order to the market or be akin to a goat rodeo. Our March market intel provides a deep dive into expectations for both domestic and imported OCTG shipments for 2024. Our analysis is further punctuated with charts that break out mill shipments by type and product.

Inasmuch as we could prognosticate ‘til the cows come home, we can’t deny “it's tough to make predictions—especially about the future.” That said, you know you won’t find “all hat and few cattle” here. And while it may not be all hats & horns in the oil patch in 2024, we trust iron-willed oil patch devotees will be spurred to put their ingenuity to work for better days ahead. And that folks, is no bull!

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Photo Courtesy Port Houston


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