If you happened to witness or catch a replay of the most recent and historic Kentucky Derby, then you saw Rich Strike strike it rich by delivering the most epic upset in the 148-year history of the fabled race by overcoming 81-1 odds for a come from behind win. Following two years of a global pandemic and last year’s horse doping scandal, the 2022 Kentucky Derby was billed as a “return to normal,” but like all things in the 2020s it was anything but. The moral of the story here is unicorns can emerge anywhere and situations in life can change quickly, which leads us to another month of OCTG in the oil patch.
If you worked in oil & gas for at least the past seven years you’ve felt whiplashed at one time or another by the pace of the highs and lows this sector has served up. Granted this is an industry known for its booms and busts, but the current protracted period is truly one of the most unbridled.
The oil patch experienced yet another episode of whiplash early this month when in the course of a week the DOC announced preliminary antidumping (AD) rates in the most recent OCTG trade case for Argentina, Mexico, and Russia. Later that same week a ministerial error was announced that puts the AD margin for Mexico in question.
While we await a final decision on this addendum, in either case the duties are still substantial. This means from May 11 forward, any volume of OCTG imported into the US from one of these three countries will require a deposit equal to the preliminary margins. This will continue until the DOC and ITC issue their final determinations later this year. The final rulings will determine if injury did or did not occur. Depending on the judgements the remitting parties’ deposits will be refunded or retained.
So what does this mean in broader terms? We discuss a litany of events that have to be considered when analyzing the supply/pricing picture in our May market intel.
We all know that market volatility comes with the turf: it’s baked into the DNA of the oil patch. The stakes for this year are certainly high and we’ll be here through it all offering up the inside track to assure our subscribers have a decisive leg up on anything of great import. You can bet on it.
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Photo Courtesy Southwestern Energy Corp.