THE OCTG SITUATION ROOM

3Q19 OCTG Inventories: A Turn for the Better

Susan Murphy

Oct 30, 2019
2 min

3Q19 OCTG Inventories: A Turn for the Better

When it comes to diagnosing the health of the oil patch there’s no greater panacea than robust drilling activity, but a significant drop in OCTG inventories is always a shot in the arm for the supply chain. Thus, the results of our exclusive Quarterly Inventory Yard Survey can be viewed as a welcome relief. In 3Q19 (period ending 9/30/19) “prime” US upstream OCTG inventories in the lower 48 contracted significantly. Details can be found in this month’s OCTG Situation Report.

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Susan Murphy

Sep 25, 2019
2 min

Doing the Math on OCTG in Q3

As the class of “2020” reconvenes at school this month we too are putting on our thinking caps and dusting off our previous 2019 forecasts to see if they stood the test of time. Reviewing the past couple months, it’s almost as if fall descended on the oil patch in June when we detected a chill in the air during our midyear market conversations. Sadly, our below-average updated annual projections now reflect the cooling drilling activity. “Old school” conventional thinking wou

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Will ‘Chill, Baby, Chill’ be the Mantra for OCTG in 2019?

Susan Murphy

Aug 28, 2019
3 min

Will ‘Chill, Baby, Chill’ be the Mantra for OCTG in 2019?

As we make our way through the dog days of August one begins to wonder if the “drill, baby, drill” mantra from 2008 will evolve into “chill, baby, chill” for 2019? OFS brass are forecasting drilling activity for the balance of the year will be ‘chillin,’ while softening OCTG prices are sending a chill down the spines of suppliers. Just looking at the many down arrows on our cover this month would lead many to believe that summer has given way to fall. So, is it all downhill f

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Susan Murphy

Jun 26, 2019
3 min

OCTG 2H19: Rolling with the Punches

Each year in June we take the temperature of the oil patch, speaking with people from every walk of the supply chain to get a sense of the market from their perspective. This exercise inevitably yields valuable and colorful commentary on the present state of affairs. Last year could have been summed up in “232” words as discussions were almost entirely variables on the theme of the investigation. In reviewing the results of this year’s midyear market calls, one phrase best ca

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The OCTG ‘Space’ 1Q19: The Current Frontier

Susan Murphy

Apr 30, 2019
3 min

The OCTG ‘Space’ 1Q19: The Current Frontier

While visual evidence of a massive Black Hole made headlines recently, we’re happy to report you won’t find any black holes in OCTG inventory metrics due to our exclusive quarterly Inventory Yard Surveys. This breakthrough is credited to our publication’s founder, Duane Murphy, who decided 33 years ago it was high time to resolve this gap and went about the laborious task of doing exactly that. The gravity of his work cannot be underestimated especially when you consider our

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Testing the OCTG Market’s ‘Metal’ in Early 2019

Susan Murphy

Feb 27, 2019
3 min

Testing the OCTG Market’s ‘Metal’ in Early 2019

If it’s February it must be our “Annual State of the Industry Report.” But alas, that isn’t the ‘Situation’ this month as the shutdown got the better of anyone who relies on the government for stats. Thus, we’ve postponed our Annual Report until March when the December 2018 import/export data points will be made available, enabling us to provide a thorough examination of the trends that defined the OCTG landscape over the past three years. This month we’ll look at some curren

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4Q OCTG Inventory Yard Survey: Rolling with the Punches

Susan Murphy

Jan 30, 2019
5 min

4Q OCTG Inventory Yard Survey: Rolling with the Punches

The new year got underway with a blustery winter wallop: WTI prices struggling to reach $50/bbl coupled with a government ‘meltdown.’ We trust this isn’t the writing on the wall for 2019, so rather than wallow in woe we’ll kick things off with the results of our exclusive 4Q18 OCTG Inventory Yard Survey that may help some put a little spring in their step. Published every quarter, our OCTG Inventory Yard Survey is the only one of its kind in the world. It is designed to asses

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2019 OCTG Forecasts: Merry & Bright ... or Ho-Hum?

Susan Murphy

Nov 28, 2018
3 min

2019 OCTG Forecasts: Merry & Bright ... or Ho-Hum?

’Tis the season and it’s tradition for us to start it by ringing in our forecast of all things OCTG for 2019. As we began checking off our list of oilfield indicators in early November it appeared that our projections, starting with WTI, would be of good cheer. We were midway through our predictions when the White House threw in a lump of coal—a reprieve from Iran sanctions for eight countries—roiling oil markets on concerns of oversupply and potentially dashing our merry and

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Oil Patch Confidential: 3Q18 OCTG Inventory Yard Survey

Susan Murphy

Oct 24, 2018
3 min

Oil Patch Confidential: 3Q18 OCTG Inventory Yard Survey

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.” ~Sherlock Holmes. Holmes clearly understood that having data to back up one’s conclusions is paramount and our exclusive quarterly OCTG inventory yard survey is further proof of this fact. Our inventory investigation and analysis is the only one of its kind in the world and serves as a bellwether of OCTG health throughout every segment of the supply chain. Zeroing in on the Outcome Herewith we present the evidence lea

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OCTG Price Forecast: The 64K Dollar Question

Susan Murphy

Sep 26, 2018
3 min

OCTG Price Forecast: The 64K Dollar Question

"It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all," ~Henri Poincare, author of “The Foundations of Science.” With a greater line of sight to the year-end and a better grip on the impact of the 232 we thought it would prove prescient to revisit our thinking on OCTG pricing for Q4 and into 2019 as the E&P forecasting season is upon us. The results of this month’s distributor spot market pricing survey made it clear that the 232 won’t add near as muc

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Susan Murphy

Aug 29, 2018
2 min

OCTG at Crossroads?

Baseball Hall of Famer and philosopher Yogi Berra said it best: "If you come to a fork in the road, take it!" And so we forge ahead into the second half of the year despite the occasional speed bumps and obstacle course we fondly call the oil patch. Interestingly, “patchy” seems to be the operative word when it comes to describing current market sentiment. The paradox is that overall demand continues reasonably steady and drilling operations have remained resilient notwithsta

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2Q18 OCTG Inventory Yard Survey: Who Turned Up the Volume?

Susan Murphy

Jul 31, 2018
3 min

2Q18 OCTG Inventory Yard Survey: Who Turned Up the Volume?

Drum roll, please…the results of our exclusive quarterly OCTG inventory yard survey is here. The objective of this endeavor is always the same: to measure demand for upstream pipe throughout the supply chain across the lower 48. The question is, did 2Q18 end on a high note or were we left singing the blues? The answer is somewhat involved. A portion of our analysis that was published in this month’s Report follows. The key point is inventories ended higher than anticipated bu

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Susan Murphy

May 23, 2018
3 min

Surviving Post-Traumatic ‘232’ Disorder

s we barrel ahead toward summer in the oil patch there’s an intermittent up-stream of opportunities for various sectors of the supply chain

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Susan Murphy

Feb 22, 2018
4 min

OCTG By Numbers

As we prepare for our publication’s annual ‘state of the industry’ address every February we often find clues in past years’ metrics and this year is no different. With questions looming about the Section 232, 2018 E&P budgets, L48 hydrocarbon production and oil at $60/bbl…will we find strength in numbers this year or are we looking at a catch-22? The year-end OCTG stats found in our table on page 6 zero in on the trends that defined the OCTG market over the past three years.

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4Q17 OCTG Inventories: Not All Black & White

Susan Murphy

Jan 30, 2018
3 min

4Q17 OCTG Inventories: Not All Black & White

As we zoom past 2017 it’s time to bring focus to the current OCTG inventory situation. 4Q17 OCTG inventory results are best framed as a tale of two ‘quarters.’ There is simply no way to provide a clear snapshot of the outcome without looking back to the second quarter of 2017 and reminding our readers that we make any necessary adjustments to our inventory yard results once a year in January in order to accommodate new OCTG yards that come onboard. With that said, five new OC

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Susan Murphy

Sep 20, 2017
3 min

OCTG Weathers Texas Storms

Weather news has taken the US by storm for the past couple weeks starting with Hurricane Harvey that hit home for so many in the oil patch. While the plight of the people in its path was the first concern, many in the OFS supply chain wondered how the storm might trickle down to tubular goods. After all, the fate of OCTG this year has been balanced on a fragile ecosystem making another potential threat especially distressing. The two charts below lend further credence to this

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Getting a Read on OCTG Inventories for 2Q17

Susan Murphy

Jul 26, 2017
2 min

Getting a Read on OCTG Inventories for 2Q17

As we close the chapter on another exclusive quarterly inventory survey, we’re grateful to the hundreds of OCTG yards throughout the supply

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